Fryman Canyon Estates Market Overview

Fryman Canyon Estates

Price Trend

Average Sale Price by Quarter

Fryman Canyon Estates

Active Listings

Jack Misraje: The one I keep coming back to is 3316 Fryman Rd at $8.995M, asking $1,405 a foot for a 6,400-square-foot turnkey build-to-suit opportunity with direct Fryman Canyon trail access. The most similar recent comp is 3216 Fryman Rd, which closed at $722 a foot in late April, so 3316 is asking nearly double that number, but the operative comp here is a dated product with a layout-quality edge, not a turnkey new build. The two other Fryman Road closings this spring, 3240 Fryman Rd at $1,526 a foot and 3301 Oakdell Rd at $1,309 a foot, give us a better sense of where improved product has been trading, and 3316 sits right in that range. At 18 days on market, it is getting immediate attention. The resistance listing is 11662 Duque Dr at $4.995M, asking $1,077 a foot, now at 109 days. The most similar recent comp is 3142 Brookdale Rd at $1,487 a foot, a remodeled single-story with vaulted ceilings that closed in mid-April, so 11662 is priced 28% below that comp. The pricing is defensible for the product, but at nearly four months on market, the total dollar amount is the issue, not the per-foot number. Worth noting: 3225 Iredell Ln and 3369 Fryman Pl are both asking under $5M at $844 and $823 a foot respectively, both priced well below the most similar recent comps at $1,545 a foot (11945 Lockridge Rd), and both are under three weeks on market, which suggests buyers are responding to the aggressive pricing. At the top of the market, 3405 Fryman Rd is asking $32.5M for a 17,627-square-foot estate at $1,844 a foot, and 11971 Lockridge Rd is asking $15. Neither has a truly similar recent comp, so we are watching days on market as the signal, and both are past 60 days now, which is not unusual at those price points but you do start watching closely after 30 days.

Fryman Canyon Estates

Under Contract

Misraje Real Estate Partners: Nothing is under contract in Fryman Estates right now. The most recent home to close was 3216 Fryman Rd on April 29, which traded at $722 a foot after 15 days on market. We are watching to see which of the active listings draws the next buyer and whether it comes from the sub-$5M tier where pricing is aggressive or from the $9M-to-$16M tier where product quality is strong but total dollar amounts are high.

Nothing under contract at this time.

Fryman Canyon Estates

Recent Sales· last 12 months

Karen Misraje: Two closings to walk through. 3216 Fryman Rd closed on April 29 at $4.11M, $722 a foot, after 15 days on market. That is the most recent sale and also the lowest per-foot trade in the trailing twelve months, and the description signals layout quality and a pool setup, so this was not a distressed product, it was a large home on Fryman Road priced to move quickly. 3240 Fryman Rd closed on April 15 at $8.75M, $1,526 a foot, with zero days on market, which means it traded off-market or pre-listing. That is the highest per-foot sale in the recent set, and the $804-a-foot spread between these two trades is not a market-wide trend, it is selective buyer behavior tied to product quality. When you see a $722-a-foot sale and a $1,526-a-foot sale in the same 90-day window, the story is that buyers will pay a premium for better product, and they will move quickly when pricing is aggressive on the lower end.